The Fed, Tariffs, and AI

Navigating the Next Season in Housing

On September 18, we welcomed nearly 400 realtors to our base of operations in Alpharetta, GA for an informative economic update from Fannie Mae’s former Chief Economist Doug Duncan. In addition to gaining insights for what lies ahead in the housing market, we also heard from our very own Tai Anderson about how AI is shaping the future of our industry.

Thank you to all of our real estate partners for being a part of our event!

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Watch the Full Program

Key Takeaways

Doug Duncan
Former Chief Economist
Fannie Mae

ECONOMIC UPDATE

  • The three primary drivers of housing: demographics, employment, and affordability.

  • Georgia’s backdrop is strong on in-migration and very low unemployment; the pain point is affordability.

  • Existing home sales in 2025 are 4M - about the same as 1995 despite 80M more people - underscoring today’s affordability imbalance.

  • Completed new homes for sale are the highest since just before 2008; supply remains the #1 housing variable. A steady 10% sales pickup next year and again the year after would be the healthiest path.

  • Baseline outlook: total home sales up 10% next year; their model has mortgage rates around 6.1–6.2% into next year.

  • Fed’s latest move was a “risk-management” cut amid uncertainties (tariffs, politicization, growth).

  • Employment is softening - watch the first-Friday jobs prints.

  • Mortgage rates don’t move one-for-one with Fed Funds.

  • A rapid drop to 4.5% mortgages would reignite demand and shortages, re-inflating prices; a gradual “thaw” is better.

Tai Anderson
Creative Director
Supreme Lending Southeast

HOW AI IS AFFECTING OUR INDUSTRY

  • Mindset first: AI won’t “take your job,” but someone who learns to use it might. Treat AI as a tool - learn, adapt, and respond heroically.

  • Get hands-on with ChatGPT (beyond listing descriptions): use it like an “English professor” to sharpen client communications and emails. The professional bar has been raised.

  • Marketing accelerator: have ChatGPT draft localized 30-day marketing plans and ongoing content ideas - you’re never “out of things to say.”

  • Lead-nurture & CRM: pre-load the journey with timely, on-message touches; ChatGPT can help write the entire sequence so life interruptions don’t derail consistency.

  • Be early and focused: adopt quickly (“first to market”) and deploy AI where it truly drives value - like the selective, practical tools your team has built (e.g., Supreme Essentials, Home Buyer Journey).

Event Photos